Markovian Modeling of Students Performance by Cohorts in Secondary Schools

Abstract

The evaluation of students’ progress is a very important part of any educational system. Examination results is one of the indicators of a student’s success and school performance. The assessment methods used in schools cannot be used to forecast with what certainty a student’s level of performance will change in either direction. The Markov chain model can be sensitive to reflect the true assessment. In this paper Markovian modeling of student performance by cohorts in Secondary school was done. The paper sought to show how students’ achievements in the immediate previous exams affect the final grade. With the help of Markovian chains, the probability of a student scoring a given grade at the end of the course was shown. The study was conducted through case studies, document analysis, Markovian chain theory, maximum likelihood estimator to estimate transition parameters and Matlab software. It is hoped that the findings of this study will yield information that will be useful to project planning and decision making by the candidates, teachers, parents, curriculum implementers and evaluators and other stakeholders in the education system.