Projected rainfall and temperature changes over Bungoma county in western Kenya by the year 2050 based precis modeling system
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Date
2016
Authors
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Journal ISSN
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Publisher
Dept. of Geography, Bahir Dar university
Abstract
This study investigated projected changes in rainfall and temperature over Bungoma
County by the year 2050 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2B emission Scenarios (IPCC, 2007)
using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS); (Giorgi, 2007). The
PRECIS regional Climate Model (Hadley RM3P) was configured in 0.22°×0.22° horizontal
grid resolution was forced at the lateral boundaries by the UKMO-HadAM3P and
UKMOHadCM3 global Models. The future projection of temperature indicates warming
over Bungoma County by the year 2050 coupled with reduced precipitation. Time series
analysis revealed a cyclic and seasonal trend in rainfall and temperature over the area of
study. Temporal characteristics revealed a warmer and colder September-OctoberNovember (SON) season under A1B and A2B scenarios respectively. The results also
revealed increasing temperatures and reducing rainfall across all seasons under both
scenarios except in March-April-May (MAM) season where rainfall amounts increased and
temperature reduced. A two paired t-test for the two climate variables revealed a ρ value
of less than 0.05 (ρ<0.05) suggesting a statistically significant relationship between each
pair of the two variables. The study recommends further evaluation of the model
performance in simulating the present day climate over the area of study.
Description
Keywords
Climate change, Regional circulation model, Precis, Bungoma county