Browsing by Author "Nyongesa, Fatuma Nandaha"

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Assessment of Mathematical Model for Predicting Climate Change Impact on Water Availability and Quality: A SWAT-SEIR Framework
(Iconic Research and Engineering Journals, 2025-07-07) Nyongesa, Fatuma Nandaha; Mulambula, Andanje; Konje, Martha Muthoni
This paper critically reviews and assesses various mathematical and computational modeling techniques applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on water security. Emphasis is placed on integrating dynamic hydrological processes with contamination propagation under changing climatic conditions. The study employs a SWAT-SEIR-type model, analyzed by both analytical and numerical methods like the Fourth-Order Runge-Kutta (RK4) scheme, simulate water system dynamics and evaluate stability conditions, particularly focusing on the basic reproduction number R0 as an index of contamination spread. The analysis contributes to understanding the complex interplay between climate-induced stressors and water resources, providing a foundation for developing robust water security strategies in the face of climate change.
Development of an Integrated SWAT-SEIR Mathematical Model for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Security: A Lake Victoria Basin Case Study
(Iconic Research and Engineering Journals, 2025-07-07) Nyongesa, Fatuma Nandaha; Mulambula, Andanje; Konje, Martha Muthoni
Climate change poses significant threats to water security globally, with the Lake Victoria Basin experiencing intensified droughts, floods, and water quality degradation. This study developed an integrated mathematical model combining the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological framework to assess complex interactions between climate change and hydrological processes. The hybrid model captures both water quantity dynamics through SWAT's physically-based approach and water quality contamination dynamics through the SEIR compartmental structure. Model validation achieved excellent performance with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.85 for streamflow and satisfactory performance for water quality parameters (NSE =0.59-0.67). The basic reproduction number (R₀ =4.69) indicated endemic contamination conditions requiring active management intervention. Sensitivity analysis revealed environmental degradation factor (μ* = 0.342) and precipitation input (μ* = 0.298) as the most influential parameters. The integrated framework successfully represents threshold behaviors and system transitions critical for climate adaptation planning.
Mathematical Model for Predicting Climate Change Impact on Water Availability and Quality: A SWATSEIR Framework
(Iconic Research and Engineering Journals, 2025-07-07) Nyongesa, Fatuma Nandaha; Mulambula, Andanje; Konje, Martha Muthoni
Flood-prone regions, such as Budalangi in the Lake Victoria Basin, frequently experience endemic contamination of their water resources due to recurrent flooding events. Consequently, effective water management strategies in such regions must address not only acute contamination during flood events but also the persistent, chronic nature of waterborne contamination driven by climatic variability and infrastructural challenges. The framework successfully demonstrated the capacity to simulate the dynamic behavior of water systems influenced by environmental stressors, making it suitable for comprehensive climate water interaction assessments. This paper presents an integrated mathematical model that captures the dynamics between climate change and water security and analyze the impact of climate change on water security in Budalangi.