Flood Frequency Analysis towards Food Security in Upper Njoro River Catchment, Kenya
Abstract
Upper Njoro River catchment (UNRiC) falls within the Eastern Mau forest situated along the
western escarpment of the Rift Valley. It serves as the head water for Njoro River which is the
major river draining its water in Lake Nakuru. The main economic activity within the area is
farming and the main crops grown include maize and potatoes which are among main crops in
the flagship projects of the big four Agendas to enhance food security and nutrition. The area
receives a trimodal pattern of rainfall having peaks in April, August and November with. Heavy
downpour usually comes after the dry and hot months of January February and March. The heavy
rainfall lead to unexpected floods which results to food security of people. To enhance the
realization of the agenda for food security, farmers need to produce throughout the year. The
high runoff rates that are being experienced within the area can be harnessed to be used for
agricultural production. There was therefore need for the knowledge on the characteristics of
extreme surface flows within the catchment in terms of magnitude, frequency and duration for
design of water storage structures and also to anticipate flood occurrence. The objective of the
study was to characterize annual peak discharges for Njoro River based on probability
distribution functions within the Easy fit software. The key findings from the study included the
best fitting probability distribution model being Generalized Pareto. Peak flow discharges
estimated for 50, 100 and 200 year return periods using the best fitting model included 8.1 m3/s,
10.1 m3/s and 12.3 m3/s respectively. The study recommends the use of Generalized Pareto
probability distribution function in the anticipation of extreme flows and in design of water
storage structures for use in agricultural production hence improved food security and nutrition.
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